The Stock Performance of the 50 Public Companies With the Most Popular Twitter Accounts

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I thought it would be interesting to examine the top 50 brands on Twitter and compare their financial performance with that of the broader stock market. I hoped to demonstrate that follower counts do not matter, but the exercise of tabulating these top Twitter accounts proved even more interesting and challenging than expected.

For this exercise, I started with Socialbakers' list of the top brands on Twitter as ranked by their follower counts. I eliminated any Twitter accounts associated with privately held or nonprofit organizations. (You'll find a list of the accounts eliminated at the end of the chart below.)

I quickly ran into questions of the best way to compile this list, because the top accounts do not necessarily correlate to corporations. While Twitter accounts like Starbucks and Dior are straightforward (since both are public corporations), what about Duck Commander, the account for both the reality TV show and the company run by the Robertson clan? Should this account be associated with A&E (the network that broadcasts the show), Gurney Productions (the show's production company) or the LLC that sells duck calls? (I decided the latter and eliminated it from the list as a privately held company.)

There also seems to be some issues with Socialbakers' rankings. For example, the @Google, @Instagram and @Samsung accounts are missing from Socialbakers' list of top brands on Twitter. It turns out they are all included in the "Media" and not the "Brand" category (a distinction I do not understand and cannot defend.)

Eventually I decided to use Socialbakers' top brand list (warts and all) and include any company with a top Twitter account. So, even though @Dell only has 290,000 followers, which would not be sufficient for inclusion in the top 50 list, Dell appears on the list because the @DellOutlet account has 1.45 million followers. Two other examples are Time Warner, included not because its corporate @TWC account has 59,000 followers but because @CNNMoney has 663,000 followers, and Walgreens, which is on the list because Duane Reade, which Walgreens acquired in 2010, has 1.8 million followers.

As a result, my list is not the top 50 brands on Twitter but the 50 public companies that have the most popular Twitter accounts based on followers, as defined by the Socialbakers' list.

Looking at the list below, I drew a couple of conclusions:

• The companies and brands that have the most followers do not necessarily outperform the market:  I have often repeated that Twitter followers and Facebook fans are a lagging indicator and not a leading indicator of success--they represent past success and not future prospects. Depending upon your interpretation of the data, this theory seems validated by the numbers.
  
  While the average performance of these companies in both the one- and five-year timeframe is much better than the S&P 500, these companies' performance is remarkably similar to the broader NASDAQ market index. And when you consider the median performance (which eliminates the effect from a couple of very high performing stocks and considers the more typical companies in the list), the performance is significantly below the NASDAQ index. It is hard to make the case that more fans are a predictor of future performance, based on this list; if anything, once one considers both average and median performance against both the broad and narrow stock market indices, it seems companies with lots of fans are quite average performers.
   
• The world is, indeed, flat: If you expected this list to be dominated by US companies, you would be only partially correct; the list of companies is far from universally American. Of the 50 companies on the list, 36% are traded on the NYSE, 34% on NASDAQ and the rest are found on overseas exchanges or over the counter. Roughly a third of the firms are headquartered overseas, including Sony, Samsung, Dior, Burberry, KLM, Louis Vuitton, Kering, STC and Etihad Etisalat. (On the other hand, when brands have different accounts dedicated to English and other languages, the English accounts tend to attract a great deal more followers.)
   
• The playing field is (more) level: It is clear that size matters in some industries, such as CPG, dining and retail, with larger firms such as Coke, Pepsi, Target, McDonald's, Yum Brands, Starbucks, Victoria's Secret and H&M scoring many fans. In other categories, however, size is far less important; for instance, while the expected tech giants can be found on this list, so are several small game developers. In addition, if you glance at the popular Twitter accounts excluded because they are not associated with public companies, you will find that nonprofits and privately held style brands possess a significant portion of the most popular Twitter accounts.
   
• Twitter is for geeks and fasionistas: It isn't surprising that tech brands (Apple, Microsoft, Google) and digital games (EA, Activision Blizzard) would amass many followers on Twitter. What was more surprising to me (which may speak more to my fashion sense than my Twitter awareness) is that high-end style brands--the kind not common in most closets--are so popular. All told, technology, gaming and style companies represent roughly half of this list. 

When you scan this list, what do you see?  Any insights about Twitter followers and financial performance?

	Twitter Followers	5-Year Stock performance (2/20/09 - 2/14/2014)	1-Year Stock performance (2/19/13 - 2/14/2014)	Symbol
Samsung Electronics: - Samsung Mobile - Samsung Mobile US - Samsung Camera	7160736 5041152 849635	154.60%	-13.15%	KRX: 005930
Starbucks - Starbucks Japan	5734238 872655	640.67%	38.08%	NASDAQ: SBUX
Apple: - iTunes - App Store	5416851 2411572	448.60%	18.22%	NASDAQ: AAPL
Google: - Android - Google Chrome - Gmail - Google Play - Google Maps - Android Dev - Google Dev - Google Drive - Google Nexus - Android.es	4560669 3603867 3291622 2628216 1983479 988146 790350 707149 689482 675279	236.28%	51.70%	NASDAQ: GOOG
Dior	4316848	232.51%	12.61%	EPA: CDI
Microsoft - Windows - Skype - Xbox - Windows Phone - Office	4137169 3473323 3341881 2758977 1160997 658371	97.07%	34.31%	NASDAQ: MSFT
Blackberry: - Blackberry Help - AyudaBlackBerry	3919123 1411775 645716	-81.49%	-36.56%	NASDAQ: BBRY
Whole Foods	3626975	949.20%	18.59%	NASDAQ: WFM
Sony: - Playstation - Sony - Playstation Latam	3550534 2028492 669457	-7.78%	18.97%	NYSE: SNE
L Brands - Victoria's Secret	3520452	576.04%	24.90%	NYSE: LB
H&M	3170449	76.96%	27.17%	STO: HM-B
Nike - Nike.com - Nike Football - Nike Basketball - Nike Soccer	2744223 2193198 1740761 1022047 800153	245.71%	36.62%	NYSE: NKE
Intel	2741156	78.35%	17.24%	NASDAQ: INTC
Burberry	2654293	451.74%	10.78%	LON: BRBY
LVMH: - Louis Vuitton - Louis Vuitton US	2481782 1015426	177.45%	1.35%	EPA: MC
Pepsi	2477044	48.54%	5.99%	NYSE: PEP
Coca-Cola	2313833	77.60%	4.04%	NYSE: KO
Take-Two Interactive: - Rockstar Games	2295689	145.63%	26.72%	NASDAQ: TTWO
McDonald's	2200076	68.60%	2.00%	NYSE: MCD
Electronic Arts - EA Sports	2064856 650880	62.91%	62.52%	NASDAQ: EA
Walgreens: - Duane Reade	1857691	147.91%	57.42%	NYSE: WAG
Kering: - Yves Saint Laurent - Gucci	1840992 999689	257.97%	-11.45%	EPA: KER
JetBlue	1791023	46.23%	41.63%	NASDAQ: JBLU
Amazon: - Woot - Amazon MP3 - Amazon	1641620 1599460 943181	464.89%	34.80%	NASDAQ: AMZN
Twitter: - Safety - Mobile Support - Feedack by Tweet - Twitter Design - Ayuda y Soporte - Verified Accounts - Twitter for News - Translator - Twitter Nonprofits - Twitter TV	1630116 1329023 1250380 1243135 1138551 1046322 967131 952000 865642 858952	27.93%	27.93%	NYSE: TWTR	*
Southwest Airlines	1614523	192.18%	83.62%	NYSE: LUV
Adidas: - Adidas Originals - Adidas Football - Adidas	1545043 816417 733492	219.69%	23.68%	ETR: ADS
Dell: - Dell Outlet	1448566	51.97%	0.36%	NASDAQ: DELL	**
Nokia	1234404	-40.80%	78.95%	NYSE: NOK
Ubisoft	1213302	-4.78%	46.09%	EPA: UBI
Verizon Wireless	1098115	57.34%	4.75%	NYSE: VZ
Monster: - Monster Energy	1067761	305.84%	40.15%	NASDAQ: MNST
Target	1060610	86.37%	-9.16%	NYSE: TGT
Yum Brands: - Taco Bell - Pizza Hut	1038182 729017	151.96%	14.74%	NYSE: YUM
HTC	980663	-65.98%	-52.85%	TPE: 2498
Activision Blizzard: - Infinity Ward - Treyarch Studios	974383 937031	104.12%	37.79%	NASDAQ: ATVI
Sega	875179	129.55%	47.70%	TYO: 6460
Tiffany & Co.	866026	336.87%	36.09%	NYSE: TIF
Urban Outfitters	829082	117.27%	-13.18%	NASDAQ: URBN
Air France - KLM: - KLM	804814	17.46%	6.74%	OTCMKTS: AFLYY
Geeknet: - ThinkGeek	781952	84.74%	16.23%	NASDAQ: GKNT
STC: - STC_KSA	762334	57.93%	53.23%	Tadawul: 7010
American Airlines	739106	116.95%	348.43%	OTCMKTS: AAMRQ
CBOE	727238	81.59%	56.59%	NASDAQ: CBOE
American Express	698949	465.44%	44.27%	NYSE: AXP
Etihad Etisalat Co - Mobily	694079	195.53%	24.16%	Tadawul: 7020
Foot Locker	692426	416.58%	16.23%	NYSE: FL
CNN Money	662131	151.06%	22.01%	NYSE: TWX
Audi	645323	2.73%	10.99%	FRA: NSU
Ralph Lauren	636793	324.98%	-10.04%	NYSE: RL
AVERAGE		183.61%	28.80%
MEDIAN		123.41%	22.85%
NASDAQ		176.60%	32.96%
S&P 500		122.37%	20.98%
Not publicly traded: Vine, Hootsuite, Chanel, ClaroRonaldo, Dropbox, UNICEF, Firefox, TOMS, Nimbuzz, Dolce & Gabbana, Twitter Movies, YouTube Creators, Subway, EMANSANGELS, Calvin Klein, Jumpman23/Jordan, Marc Jacobs, Charity Water, Forver 21, Nando's, Cines Unidos, WWF, Sephora, Verace, Armani, Christian Louboutin, American Red Cross, Travel Bargains, Gates Foundation, ABF Foundation, Red, Human Rights Watch, Aluminaid, JustUnfollow, Greenpeace, Amnestry International, Gibson Guitar, DMedicalinfo, AirAsia/Tune Group, CERN, Ike's/IkesLove, UnfollowTT, GoPro, Save the Children,  Roberto Cavalli, TwitBird/Nibirutech, Kickstarter, Topshop, OneCampaign,  Gearbox Software, Mayo Clinic, Mojang Team, Non-Violence Project Mexico, Beautylish, Duck Commander, Odontosalud, Hotel Deals Weekly, Spotify, Chak89,  Stella McCartney, Do Something, tenki.jp, Global Network for Rights and Development, Klout, Greenpeace Brasil, Estetica y Salud, Harvard Health, Hollister Incorporated, Diane von Furstenberg, Valentino

* Twitter since 11/8/2013
** Dell: 2/20/09 to 10/29/13 (when it went private)